- cross-posted to:
- ukraine@sopuli.xyz
- cross-posted to:
- ukraine@sopuli.xyz
Ukraine attacked Moscow on Wednesday with at least 11 drones that were shot down by air defences in what Russian officials called one of the biggest drone strikes on the capital since the war in Ukraine began in February 2022.
The war, largely a grinding artillery and drone battle across the fields, forests and villages of eastern Ukraine, escalated on Aug. 6 when Ukraine sent thousands of soldiers over the border into Russia’s western Kursk region.
For months, Ukraine has also fought an increasingly damaging drone war against the refineries and airfields of Russia, the world’s second largest oil exporter, though major drone attacks on the Moscow region - with a population of over 21 million - have been rarer.
Russia’s defence ministry said its air defences destroyed a total of 45 drones over Russian territory, including 11 over the Moscow region, 23 over the border region of Bryansk, six over the Belgorod region, three over the Kaluga region and two over the Kursk region.
With all this drone usage, why aren’t we seeing more smaller drone operations deeper into Russia? This seems like the perfect opportunity for a movie-like secret mission with a bag full of consumer drones strapped with explosives. A low flying drone swam can’t be that difficult to execute. Heck, they do it at Disneyland.
Problem is distance and autonomy.
You can’t really command drones that far, they are programed with the coordinates, then launched. And to go far, you need to have more fuel, thus a heavier drone, which in turn will be easier to detect and target for AA systems.
It can’t be that hard to get into Russia.
Depends on who you bribe.
I think you’re vastly overestimating the damage possible from the explosive payload a tiny quadcopter can carry, unless your goal is strictly terrorism i.e. intentionally targeting civilians.
Civilians dying as collateral damage during an attack/assignation of a legitimate military target is one thing, targeting civilians is another.
And before you say Russia does, don’t forget that Ukraine is dependent upon continued Western support, which is already fragile. It’s doubtful that support would survive them explicitly targeting civilians with suicide drones deep inside Russia.
I did not mean civilian deaths.
An artillery shell stapped drone in a substation, a railway control centre etc etc etc, no need to blow up the whole Kremlin or target civilians.
Again, I think you’re vastly overestimating the capability of a quadcopter drone to inflict serious damage on hard infrastructure.
But hey, maybe I’m not only wrong, but so are all of the Ukrainian sabotage teams and they’ll stumble across your advice here and realize what a great idea it is.
While I agree with your opinion, you could certainly have been a lot less of a jerk when saying it
Moving the goalposts, no one said you had to hit a bridge or something.
But I guess you knows what kind of Ukrainian sabotage is done in Russia lol. Hint: it’s not like russia is acknowledging it.
I didn’t move any goal posts, I’ve been pretty clear about my views on the general ineffectiveness of using quadcopters to target infrastructure.
But like I said, maybe I’m wrong, and the Ukrainian MoD will have a “Eureka!” moment after reading your comments.
A small quad could blow out windows, doors, and other small structures. You don’t have to blow up all of the Kremlin for it to be effective. I postulate that a dozen grenade carrying quads could do a fairly significant amount of damage, or at least put those locations in higher alert. It could have a psychological impact as well even if there was little more than scuff marks. Now scale that up to say 100 drones and it could be a wild scene. However, my exposure to military quads is from the videos posted here on Lemmy, so I don’t know if a large scale quad swarm would even be doable, or what the limitations would be.
You could probably just fly unarmed drones all over there and scare some people.
Yes, and that’s what Ukraine is doing at the moment. But they’re doing it in the cities like Moscow that actually matter to Putin, and the Russian elites.
The comment I was responding to was talking about taking a lot small drones deeper into Russia, which are places that Putin couldn’t give a shit about.
So, if they aren’t useful for destroying critical infrastructure, and Putin and the Russian elite don’t care about any psychological impact on those civilians, what is the point? Which is why I covered using them to target civilians, and why that would be a bad idea.
Saboteurs and Ukrainian assets inside of Russia are not an unlimited resource. Wouldn’t it make more sense for them to use their time doing things that actually politically harm Putin, or impact the wider Russian war effort?
It’s more about the psychological damage than anything else.
Um, actually YOU are the one that doesn’t know what you’re talking about.
Those ‘tiny quadcopters’ can drop much bigger payloads these days than just a grenade, and even then, the Ukrainians use far more than just quads.
This is from June 2023: https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/16/europe/ukraine-drone-night-strike-russia-intl-cmd/index.html
This is from December 2023: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/03/baba-yaga-is-a-giant-ukrainian-drone-that-drops-bombs-at-night/
There are many such examples, many of them not so tiny.
Especially when they drop thermobaric payloads (April 2024): https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-kamikaze-drone-thermobaric-warhead-russia-video-1886910
You put so much effort into that post, that I almost feel bad pointing out that you probably should have read the comment I was replying to… you know, the one above my comment.
But, if you’re having a hard time locating it, I pasted the relevant quote that I was responding to:
But yeah, I guess if you completely ignore the actual text I was responding to, you might of had a fair point.
That’s an impressive strawman you pull there, you said targeting civilians not the person you replied to.
There is plenty of valid military (adjacent) targets that can be damaged beyond use with a quadcopter and some explosives. Just think back to the partisans that landed that explosive drone on the A50.
I would expect Ukraine to have gotten some sabotage groups into Russia during the Kursk offensive. Or maybe Ukraine estimates their sabotage units can do more harm and run less risks in Syria, Mali or any other place where the Russians have less defended high value targets.
I’m surprised at how little we’re hearing about any covert actions by either side, since there are significant numbers of Ukrainians in Russia and vice versa. When the war started, I expected that there would be fairly frequent acts of sabotage in both countries. There is periodically news of saboteurs caught in Ukraine before accomplishing anything dramatic, and I don’t follow Russian news closely enough to know whether they have made credible claims of catching Ukrainian saboteurs. The truck bomb on the Kerch bridge is the major exception.
Acts of sabotage have been happening this entire time, whether or not they’re getting covered.
Ukraine has also been running a covert targeted assassination program, which unfortunately got some press coverage some months back due to their legally and morally questionable approach to target selection.
But, it’s an existential war for their survival, so I’m not going to moralize about it.
Didn’t you read any of the news of fire breaking out in munitions factories and manufacturing plants all over Russia? Or the memes about Ivan carelessly smoking at work?
Most of the smoking memes were about ammo depots hit by HIMARS, not sabotage. The fires at factories may have been sabotage (although I expect that the base rate of fires at Russian factories is fairly high) but they seem like the sort of thing a Ukrainian sympathizer acting alone might do rather than something coordinated by Ukraine. I suppose I was expecting bigger explosions, so to speak.
So probably either Russia hasn’t caught any yet, or they think that admitting Ukraine was able to sabotage or come close to sabotaging anything makes Russia look too “weak” so they just blame it on their own incompetence again
The most high value targets are probably close to the actual battle lines. The oil refineries are also decently high value, but they don’t need to go deep into Russia to disrupt that.
Wendover productions video about drone warfare: https://youtube.com/watch?v=kFSR6OuWVQ4
They need fuel, they need support, and they need skilled operators to navigate them to a target.
Getting those behind enemy lines is difficult.
Drones are fast as fuck. Is it possible to make a bullet dodging drone? Seems like a software issue/solution.
It’s probably not possible to detect and avoid a bullet, but if it had a randomized flight path it ought to be really difficult to shoot down.
A couple of things.
“Drone” doesn’t mean anything about speed. A drone is no faster or slower than than any other weapon with the same propulsion system.
And “shot down” doesn’t mean bullets. Air defense systems generally use extremely fast missiles.
A helpful note to consider: Some of the longer range drones Ukraine has deployed are in fact civilian aircraft that have been modified to fly remotely. These are fairly slow and not highly maneuverable. Certainly not enough to dodge bullets or missiles.
Also, if you have a dozen tiny drones flying fast and low towards a target, there’s really no time to be shooting at the sky.