I’ve read a good amount about this, and while by traditional measures there isn’t technically a recession, many real‑world signs make it feel like one. What do we think? I don’t think this breaks the 6 rule, it’s an economic question.
The US is not in a recession as of this posting date. I read something recently from Fidelity Investments that suggests that the US is heading toward a recession.
Your exact question was found on the Q&A page
Supporting evidence Key takeaways
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The US economy continues to grow, although it is sending some mixed signals. -
Corporate earnings remain strong even as consumer expectations sag. -
US tariff policy remains uncertain, and much of the impact from tariff hikes is still ahead.
Additionally, you may find this page interesting. It charts the business cycle across countries and quarters. If you play with the selections, you’ll see that countries’ economies do not always progress forward, nor are the rates of change consistent, so the page is not a predictor of what’s to come.
FWIW, a financial advisor that I know said that his company is recommending that their investors shift to a portfolio with more foreign investments.
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Depression
The recession started in 2019
Wikipedia says:
In the United States, a recession is defined as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.” The European Union has adopted a similar definition. In the United Kingdom and Canada, a recession is defined as negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters.
So technically, looks like there isn’t a recession. Though a huge chunk of US GDP is just imaginary and doesn’t represent any value, so realistically probably yes.
If AI wasn’t propping up the numbers, we’d be officially in a recession
Remember. AI doesn’t create value, it steals it from others.
In the stock market it does both!
Makes you wonder whether the calculations serve anyone other than the top 0.1%.
Their portfolios bring up the average for the US because some swinging dicks decided that a (temporarily) decisive strategic advantage in faster calculators makes the graph look “good.”
Meanwhile, people are hungry, getting furloughed, evicted, bombed, arrested, bound, gagged, and shot in America. Democratic institutions, the fundamental raison d’être for the American experiment, are undermined, bulldozed, disregarded, or blown up.
That’s fine, they say. That’s who and what they VOTED for. That’s the mandate, they say.
Horseshit, I say.
Surely the definition of ‘recession’ would just be changed again. Easier to move goal posts than to admit you lead the horse to a mirage.
Part of me wonders if it’s a recession, or if the ultra rich have finally squeezed everyone to the point it feels like one.
I’ve made more money this year than I ever thought I would, like double the most my parents have ever made and yet it doesn’t feel like I thought it would.
Part of me wonders if it’s a recession, or if the ultra rich have finally squeezed everyone to the point it feels like one
What’s the difference?
Same. Even adjusting for inflation, if I went back and told myself 10 years ago what I’d be earning in 2025, past me would think it’s “buy-whatever-I-want-money.” I can buy everything I need, but I never seem to have much left over.
Make it third. I’m currently earning what I thought would be my life goal.
I can’t even afford to move out of my two-room apartment.
The question “are we in a recession??” always makes me think of the SNL at-home headache test commercial:
The fuck do you do that generates money?
The numbers were always a little sketchy and politically filtered, but now you can’t trust/use any information. The institutions are gone, political hacks are in charge and truth is dead.
Yes.
there isn’t technically a recession
And if the economy were shrinking, would the US government statisticians actually release reliable data that says so?
Just as an FYI, there is an organisation that declares recessions in the USA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Bureau_of_Economic_Research?wprov=sfla1
And they’re based in a blue state, so if they were to declare a recession, the Trump admin would just discredit them as fake news and “radical left” propaganda.
And as soon as they do Trump will declare them traitors and demand the head is fired
No, no, they will be deported! shall we have a bingo card or something like this?
My bingo card mysteriously self-combusted & started a house fire.
Like a lot of good questions… “it depends”.
Good read here!
https://fortune.com/2025/10/09/america-feels-recession-state-dependent-income-cohort-moody-zandi/
Some states, yes. Some, no.
Some states will get pushed to “Yes” if SNAP benefits are reduced or eliminated.
I don’t know if this link will work, but Moody’s just released a statement that almost half of US states are in a recession. Closer Look on GPB had a Moody’s economist on their podcast today:
Episode webpage: https://omny.fm/shows/closer-look-with-rose-scott/moodys-analytics-says-georgia-nearing-a-recession
Based on what I’ve been reading, it would be in a recession if not for the AI investment money flooding into the tech sector. Let’s hope AI lives up to the hype, eh?
This has been called out as a bubble bigger than Too Big To Fail by everyone on every side of the political spectrum but ancaps.
I’d compare it to the dotcom bubble. A lot of companies are going to die by AI. A few will thrive.
ive seen a ton of startups on AI, and some are leaning heavily into it, both of these will be the first to go.
We will see, I suppose.
we are in a recession and knocking on the door of a 2nd great depression
🎼Nice lyrics!
You have had an almost 20 years of recession since 2008. The global economy never recovered to the previous trend. So if you think things are getting bad and then worse, you are correct.
08 was never fully fixed, its only been delayed again. 1 of things that never recovered was jobs in many fields, i felt like alot of jobs for stem just wouldnt hire people at the low-levels anymore, they just steal peoples resume and use it to screen the rest out, probably looking for the people lucky enough to have 1-2 years of experience to exploit. plus in biotech there has been a silent push for women to be hired since they are surpassing men in biology degrees 60/40%, even in my university, the people in bio class/class labs were mostly women, and the male/female PI favored women in thier volunteer labs over men by alot.
It is in a recession and entering a depression. A very deep one.
