Does Ukraine need to give up some land (Crimea) at the end? Or is there something else for Putin to save face like what (?) they did with Wagner?
Does Ukraine need to give up some land (Crimea) at the end? Or is there something else for Putin to save face like what (?) they did with Wagner?
taking few steps back and looking at the bigger picture, what can putin do?
he can’t afford to lose, because this sends him straight to hague
he can’t back down and withdraw, because this ends him politically
he can’t escalate conventionally, because he has very little to escalate with this way
he can’t use nukes, because there’s already nuclear bunker buster with his name or several, and in any case risks turning moscow into a flat pane of glass, which sounds suboptimal considering his primary objective
so if he can’t do that, what he can do? about the only option would be keeping war at this level or lower,
hoping foractively using propaganda apparatus to decrease western military aid and grinding through, trying to get ceasefire or maybe even capturing more territory and frame that as a propaganda victory. here it is elaborated in detail https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWKGYnO0Jf4