In audio intercepts from the front lines in Ukraine, Russian soldiers speak in shorthand of 200s to mean dead, 300s to mean wounded. The urge to flee has become common enough that they also talk of 500s — people who refuse to fight.
As the war grinds into its second winter, a growing number of Russian soldiers want out, as suggested in secret recordings obtained by The Associated Press of Russian soldiers calling home from the battlefields of the Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk regions in Ukraine.
The calls offer a rare glimpse of the war as it looked through Russian eyes — a point of view that seldom makes its way into Western media, largely because Russia has made it a crime to speak honestly about the conflict in Ukraine. They also show clearly how the war has progressed, from the professional soldiers who initially powered Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion to men from all walks of life compelled to serve in grueling conditions.
“There’s no f------ ‘dying the death of the brave’ here,” one soldier told his brother from the front in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. “You just die like a f------ earthworm.”
Russia lost. There were objectives set at the start, and they are no longer capable of achieving them. Russia lost this just as much as the US lost Vietnam.
Crimea can be starved out, and Ukraine is close to getting what they need to do this. They need to be within 75mi of the M14 highway (plus a few more miles because you don’t want artillery to be right at the front line). From there, they can hit all supply lines headed west, which would include all of Crimea. The Ukranians have sent missiles into the Kerch bridge before and can keep doing it. Airplanes can’t keep the whole of Crimea supplied, and neither can the Sevastopol docks.
So basically, wherever that incursion is that keeps a <75mi range to the highway, everything to the west of that is no longer viable for Russia to hold. It might take a while to starve them out, but it can’t hold forever. Putin can choose to acknowledge this and pull out, but he’s more likely to take the Hitler solution of demanding every soldier fight to the last in order to save his own face.