While true, the Canadian government has already announced grants and loans to help Canadian companies restructure their supply chains away from the US. It’s a start. While the legal framework exists, Canadian companies haven’t yet had a reason to take advantage of new free trade agreements with the EU and the Asia Pacific. Now they do.
Also, in terms of numbers: about 25% of Canadian GDP is based on US trade; a little lower than the number you quoted, still too high, I’d say. Hopefully, the Canadian economies’ smaller size will prove agile enough for the transition. I’ve also seen it suggested that the hit to the Canadian economy from Trump’s attacks could be offset by removing internal trade barriers so that Canada can trade more efficiently with itself. This has been a huge shot in the arm for that project.
20% of US exports go to the EU, 18% go to Canada, 17% to Mexico, and less than 10% to China. Similarly, about 70% of US imports come from those same markets. This will be devastating for everyone, the US included. It won’t be the ‘short period of transition’ the bloated diet coke goblin imagines. World trade patterns and supply chains will literally be upended.
go to figure 1. us economy might slow ~0.3%. canada & mexico go into recession. -3% easy with retaliation
note the tariffs are stupid and reckless and cruel and i don’t support them at all. im just adding context because i did not realize how fucked Mexico & Canada were until I looked into it
Yes, but the $920b you’re quoting is bilateral. That’s the total value of the trade relationship in goods. $450b is the value of Canada’s exports to the US, with the remainder representing US exports to Canada.
I have also seen the 3% figure for Canada, and don’t dispute that. The Atlanta fed is also predicting around the same for the US. Don’t forget, the US is attacking all of its trade partners at once, not just Canada.
What are you taking issue with? I said sky is blue and you say “yes you’re right but the grass is green”.
Canadian trade with America- of which both imports and exports are counted, as you yourself stated- represents a value which is roughly 43% of Canadian GDP.
The US may suffer more than the 0.3% in an overall sense because of trade war with other countries, OK. But the impacts from these specific tariffs- the topic of the conversation- are expected to be -0.3% for US and -3% for Canada & Mexico.
I was pointing out 2 things
A) Canada (and Mexico) are relatively small economies that have become increasingly dependent on US trade and foreign investment.
B) Because of this, they are going to experience a much worse fallout from a trade war- about an order of magnitude.
Mexican & Canadian trade combined don’t even reach 4% of US GDP. They simply do not have the leverage to hurt the US in the same way US can hurt them.
Am I making the argument Trump is correct in this decision-making? No he’s a fascist who wants to hurt foreigners just as much as he wants to hurt Americans.
Am I making the argument America is going to be immune from trade wars? No, it’s gonna fuck all of us. And if we continue to escalate trade war with China and EU we will start seeing much worse effects.
While true, the Canadian government has already announced grants and loans to help Canadian companies restructure their supply chains away from the US. It’s a start. While the legal framework exists, Canadian companies haven’t yet had a reason to take advantage of new free trade agreements with the EU and the Asia Pacific. Now they do.
Also, in terms of numbers: about 25% of Canadian GDP is based on US trade; a little lower than the number you quoted, still too high, I’d say. Hopefully, the Canadian economies’ smaller size will prove agile enough for the transition. I’ve also seen it suggested that the hit to the Canadian economy from Trump’s attacks could be offset by removing internal trade barriers so that Canada can trade more efficiently with itself. This has been a huge shot in the arm for that project.
20% of US exports go to the EU, 18% go to Canada, 17% to Mexico, and less than 10% to China. Similarly, about 70% of US imports come from those same markets. This will be devastating for everyone, the US included. It won’t be the ‘short period of transition’ the bloated diet coke goblin imagines. World trade patterns and supply chains will literally be upended.
Canada has already fixed and removed almost all of the interprovincial barriers - so we will notice it more in coming months
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12595 US-Canada trade amounts to $920B
Canadian GDP roughly $2.1T
Or roughly equivalent to ~40% of GDP depending on the year
it will be painful for US but whatever US feels, Canada & Mexico will feel 3x worse (and that number can go up 10x worse if they retaliate)
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trumps-25-tariffs-on-canada-and-mexico-will-be-a-blow-to-all-3-economies/
go to figure 1. us economy might slow ~0.3%. canada & mexico go into recession. -3% easy with retaliation
note the tariffs are stupid and reckless and cruel and i don’t support them at all. im just adding context because i did not realize how fucked Mexico & Canada were until I looked into it
Yes, but the $920b you’re quoting is bilateral. That’s the total value of the trade relationship in goods. $450b is the value of Canada’s exports to the US, with the remainder representing US exports to Canada.
I have also seen the 3% figure for Canada, and don’t dispute that. The Atlanta fed is also predicting around the same for the US. Don’t forget, the US is attacking all of its trade partners at once, not just Canada.
What are you taking issue with? I said sky is blue and you say “yes you’re right but the grass is green”.
Canadian trade with America- of which both imports and exports are counted, as you yourself stated- represents a value which is roughly 43% of Canadian GDP.
The US may suffer more than the 0.3% in an overall sense because of trade war with other countries, OK. But the impacts from these specific tariffs- the topic of the conversation- are expected to be -0.3% for US and -3% for Canada & Mexico.
I was pointing out 2 things
A) Canada (and Mexico) are relatively small economies that have become increasingly dependent on US trade and foreign investment.
B) Because of this, they are going to experience a much worse fallout from a trade war- about an order of magnitude.
Mexican & Canadian trade combined don’t even reach 4% of US GDP. They simply do not have the leverage to hurt the US in the same way US can hurt them.
Am I making the argument Trump is correct in this decision-making? No he’s a fascist who wants to hurt foreigners just as much as he wants to hurt Americans.
Am I making the argument America is going to be immune from trade wars? No, it’s gonna fuck all of us. And if we continue to escalate trade war with China and EU we will start seeing much worse effects.