Ah yes, another highly-coordinated cooperative action by the global anti-imperialist powers. /s
I know, I know, that’s not what this sub is about, but it’s kind of what Lemmy is about.
“Signs of imbalances in the economy are increasing," said Heli Simola, a researcher at the Bank of Finland, but "Russia will still be able to continue financing the war for some time. The war won’t end because Russia is running out of money.”
Really? I’ve looked at it in a reasonable amount of detail for an amateur and it seems dire to me. Another 2 full years would be impressive.
A lot of people seem to forget, what countries can take. Seriously WW2 was most everybody being willing to be bombed, have way higher casulties at the front, while rationing at home. That was true for everybody. Right now Russia has spend its war chest on the war, which means few cuts in pensions, education, infrastructure and so forth. A lot of money went to soldiers and workers in the arms industry. Millions of Russians got a better life due to the war. What we see right now is the war chest running low and that forces Russia to make cuts. So the question is how deep can Putin cut, before the systems collapses.
But Russia has a lot of natural resources and a fairly sufficent economy, while being able to trade with China. It is not perfect, but that can last a long time. Also Russia can just print Rubel. It hurts the economy long term, but Putin does not care.
I mean, definitely, that describes their military situation thus far. This guy is qualified enough to know something I don’t, too.
It would seem that at some point they’ll just straight up have less stuff in Russia than the Russian government is ordering. They’ve been solving it by squeezing borrowers so far, but they’re at credit card levels of interest right now, and you’d assume that lever gets diminishing returns at some point, once people stop bothering with central bank loans entirely.
I have trouble picturing the Putin regime as the kind that can power through hyperinflation and empty shelves on ideological fervour alone. It’s pretty greed-based. (They could also do austerity and try to buy less, but so far they’ve gone for inflationary pressure between the two; it’s easier to blame someone else for)
Ah yes, another highly-coordinated cooperative action by the global anti-imperialist powers. /s
I know, I know, that’s not what this sub is about, but it’s kind of what Lemmy is about.
Really? I’ve looked at it in a reasonable amount of detail for an amateur and it seems dire to me. Another 2 full years would be impressive.
A lot of people seem to forget, what countries can take. Seriously WW2 was most everybody being willing to be bombed, have way higher casulties at the front, while rationing at home. That was true for everybody. Right now Russia has spend its war chest on the war, which means few cuts in pensions, education, infrastructure and so forth. A lot of money went to soldiers and workers in the arms industry. Millions of Russians got a better life due to the war. What we see right now is the war chest running low and that forces Russia to make cuts. So the question is how deep can Putin cut, before the systems collapses.
But Russia has a lot of natural resources and a fairly sufficent economy, while being able to trade with China. It is not perfect, but that can last a long time. Also Russia can just print Rubel. It hurts the economy long term, but Putin does not care.
He just has to maintain it until his ally Trump wins in November.
I think we forget just how long things can stay shitty and teetering on collapse.
I mean, definitely, that describes their military situation thus far. This guy is qualified enough to know something I don’t, too.
It would seem that at some point they’ll just straight up have less stuff in Russia than the Russian government is ordering. They’ve been solving it by squeezing borrowers so far, but they’re at credit card levels of interest right now, and you’d assume that lever gets diminishing returns at some point, once people stop bothering with central bank loans entirely.
I have trouble picturing the Putin regime as the kind that can power through hyperinflation and empty shelves on ideological fervour alone. It’s pretty greed-based. (They could also do austerity and try to buy less, but so far they’ve gone for inflationary pressure between the two; it’s easier to blame someone else for)