• 12 Posts
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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 9th, 2023

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  • No, this is it. The military industry is one of the places Russia can not afford shortages. The fact that they have worker shortages, means they can not take enough workers from other industries. This is war, so producing weapons has priority. We also see wages and benefits for soldiers rising all the time. They probably have shortages in that too. Inflation is already high and the intresst rate is incredibly high too. We have seen some large blackouts already and winter is coming. At the same time Russian farmers have trouble finding workers, which drives up food prices. China is stopping payment from its banks with Russia, so imports from China will likely drop. All of that is going to drive up inflation. Inflation right now is offically at 9.1% in July. The impact of loss of payment with China is not part of that and winter will means higher energy demand, with Ukraine targeting energy infrastructure.

    Make no mistake Russia is in an economic crisis. 9.1% inflation with 18% intrest rate is really a telling sign. It will get worse, but it is already bad.




  • First of all the entire area is mostly cut off already. The Snarkost river, which flows into the Seim is cutting the Russians off south of Korenvo. The Ukranins control those bridges.

    Blowing up the bridges creates a dillema for Russia. They can fight for the land and probably have high losses or they withdraw their soldiers and give Ukraine a stronger defensive line. The Seim is a fairly large river, so a good position for Ukraine and it shortens the line they have to defend. At the same time Ukraine does not have endless resources in the region as well. So allowing the Russians to withdraw is an option.

    Especially if Ukraine plans another attack it would be a good choice. Ukraine has something like 100Leopard1, which have hardly seen combat and thousands of new recruits, which have recieved training. We have so far not seen those units. Many front line units in Donetzk are also complainign that the general staff is withdrawing assets. Kursk is a few thousand men, so not something they would notice. We also know that Ukraine has been attacking Crimea for some time. So maybe we see another offensive in the south soon. But all of that is just speculation.


  • The existing front lines are hundrets of km away. When you advance you have to move your supply line, air defence, artillery and so forth forward as well. If you move too deep, then it becomes easy for the enemy to target valueable assets, which should be a bit behind the front line. That is what Russia failed to do in the opening months of the war. They advanced a lot and Ukraine could just target air defence, artillery, tanks from behind, blow up or take supplie and so forth.

    This would not have worked. The Russians are not that incapable.



  • Russia still has a large airforce, the navy outside the Black Sea has also not been hit and the nukes also still work. All of that is with an army, which is clearly able to fight a large scale war. Obviously they are so far failing to take a country with a quarter of the Russian population, but they are clearly able to fight.

    What this does do is destroy the massive Soviet era weapons stockpile, it hurts the Russian economy and kills a lot of the willing fighting age men. If Putin is removed and Russia and the war ends, chance are that Russia ends up in a huge economic crisis, with a lot more of its talent leaving the country, massive cuts in military spending and the demographic crisis becoming even worse. It probably means a lot of infighting, maybe even a civil war, but certainly a lot of crime. However Russia as an entity will survive this and will remain a threat to Europe, as long as its culture does not change.