It may be because they are running out of reserve Soviet equipment and are forced to rely on meat assaults to keep up the pressure.

I’ve noticed the number of artillery system destroyed per day is about half (~25-35/day) of what it was for most of the past year (~70/day).

Same with APCs, the number seems to have halved and the “vehicles and fuel tanks” number has risen to compensate. To me, that indicates the Russians are riding into battle on unarmed vehicles (motorcycles, golf carts, regular cars/trucks, etc.) and are more suseptible to becoming a casualty than earlier in the war.

If that were the case, the Russians pressure/assaults may not have increased as significantly as the casualty number increase would indicate.

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I suspect the storage facilities are close to being completed emptied of working or easily fixable pieces and all that’s left is scrap/spare part pieces.

They may be receiving, or could receive in the future, artillery pieces from allies (ex. NK) that could change their ability to keep up losses.

Regarding China, I don’t think China would militarily invade a stable Russia (not civil wared). I think it’s more likely they will economically dominate them, with the implicit threat of militarily/covert action if Russia tries and recover their economic sovereignty in those dominated regions.

This news site usually has a graph with the loss percentage of the initial total and how much of the initial total is active vs reserve.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/10/12/russo-ukrainian-war-day-962-north-korean-troops-train-in-russia-for-potential-ukraine-deployment/

To answer your question, the chart shows it to be ~6,120 total artillery systems left. At a loss of 50 a day (assuming they don’t tailor down their use as they lose availability [massive assumption]), they should completely run out in about 122 days / 4 months (~ February 2025).

Obviously, that is unlikely to happen and I expect that they will tailor down their use closer to their production rate (I don’t know what their production rate is) before the end of the year, as they completely run out of any reserves.

I think they probably ment to put special equipment’s “99” under vehicles and fuel tanks. Otherwise, they would have destroyed 3% of the total destroyed special equipment.

With ferries and heavy rail over the Kerch Strait Bridge unlikely, it seems Russia is left with the new rail line being built through lower Ukraine (don’t know if its finished yet) and/or trucks across the bridge (not sure the volume it can accommodate). Seems like Crimean logistics are going to be constrained in the short term.

My recollection is that the ruble is restricted (partially/mostly?) from being traded by the Russian government. So, most of the ruble currency exchange is on the black market, which wouldn’t be what Google finance shows.

I semi recall reading something a year or so ago about the black market ruble value being half of the publicized value, so maybe what she is referencing is a recent significant drop in the black market ruble value.

I’m pretty sure the 3rd pre-war bridge was taken out (yesterday?). So, all Russia has left is the pontoon bridges (2?) and possibly one was taken out earlier today (1 left?).

To me, it seems Ukraine is trying to trap troops and equipment below the river and get a large personnel surrenders and equipment recovery.

I would add that you can swallow air to create the need to burp.

Shogun season 1. It was really well made.

Heard they were green lit for 2 more seasons. Unfortunately, it seems the first season was based on a book and there’s no book to base the next 2 seasons on.

There is history, but I’ve become very hesitant about shows that outrun their books (ex. GoT). So, hopefully they are the same quality, but not betting on it.

Relevant text:

Ukrainian crews say the fundamental problem is that the Abrams were built for advances aided by air power and artillery, which Ukraine lacks.

Russia, meanwhile, continues to make heavy use of drones in its attacks, which the Abrams struggle to defend against.

Just finished V Rising. I really liked it. For those who don’t know and are curious, it’s one of those games where, if you can’t beat a boss, you just have to get better. There’s some small things that make a fight easier, but it basically comes down to you understanding the enemy and learning to play better.

No particular order, but it seems I hit quite a few different genres.

• Starcraft
• Stardew Valley
• Subnautica
• Final Fantasy Tactics
• Infamous
• Hades
• Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic
• Halo 2
• Super Smash Brothers Melee
• Rome: Total War

Same with golfing, bowling, darts, etc. I think part of the enjoyment of these types of sports/games/competitions is to see how close to perfection you can get.

Relevant section of the article where it lays out what has been changing and what still needs to change:

… graft has been all but exterminated in some of the worst affected areas - for instance, government services such as issuing passports, permits and licences.

He also tells the BBC that significant progress had been made in reforming education and police.

Problem areas

Mr Kalmykov admits, however, that the government has been less successful in eradicating corruption in using natural resources (e.g. in mining and forestry), regulating monopolies and in large infrastructure projects.

“Progress has been slowest where big interests and big players meet,” he says.

According to him, “in the next five-ten years the government should focus on cleansing the judiciary, which will make the general system of public administration healthier”.

Relevant sections of the article:

The EU Council finalized the agreement earlier on May 21, which would provide Ukraine with between 2.5 billion and 3 billion euros ($2.7-3.26 billion) annually, with most of it allocated to Kyiv’s military needs.

The European Commission then announced later in the day that the “resources will be available to support Ukraine starting from July 2024, with bi-annual payments.”

The distribution will be reviewed on an annual basis.

My understanding is that some of the benefits China would get from invading Taiwan is the control of Taiwan’s world-leading semiconductor industry. So making it public knowledge that any invading force (i.e. China) would not be able to take over their production capabilities is a small deterrent.

Besides the additional Norway airplanes, this was new information to me:

The primary bottleneck to the Ukrainian Air Force’s fielding F-16s in quantity is not limited numbers of airframes but how many combat pilots and ground crew Kyiv can spare from the actual war, to train on transition to the F-16, Cavoli said.

According to Ukrainian mil-bloggers, the first six F-16s with pilots and ground crew will reach Ukraine in June or July. Earlier deadlines had predicted the arrival in April or May.

Mods, perhaps a weekly post like this would be beneficial? Lowering the bar to entry with some available support and helping to keep converts.

The cost of one “Orlan-10” drone is estimated between $87,000 and $120,000, as reported by the UK’s Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies.

Source: https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/01/13/russian-drone-manufacturer-orlan-10-ramps-up-production-despite-sanctions-inform-napalm-reports/