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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: July 26th, 2023

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  • I rewatch The Hobbit trilogy and LOTR (both extended) every year with my wife. I would prefer just watching a fan cut of the hobbit as I don’t think those are very good, but my wife likes them and a happy wife is a happy life.

    So I think I have seen LOTR at least 8 or 9 times and hobbit maybe 4 times.

    That still doesn’t come close to a Swanlake cartoon movie that I obsessively watched 4 times a day when I was around 5 or 6. My parents insist I must have watched it well over 100 times.






  • The first gout attack I had was the worst. I had been limping for two weeks thinking it would just go away, but it got steadily worse until it became unbearable and I went to the doctor. The diagnosis was almost instantaneous. She looked at my foot and went “Yep, gout”. It got worse for another couple of days until it slowly started ebbing away. I was basically a cripple for at least two weeks though.

    I have it better under control now, but it still plays up sometimes. Gout sucks, but also there are worse things I suppose.



  • This only goes for the movies. In the books they have arranged a house for Frodo on the eastern border of the Shire, where he will go lay low for several months before going to Rivendell. Merry, Pippin and Fatty Bolger have figured out the plan months in advance and made their own plans, in such a way that when the black riders arrive in the region, they leave within 5 minutes and have a route planned out already.

    Also, it’s tobacco as clearly mentioned in the books. They are probably quite drunk in this scene though.

    Edit: and of course Samwise was also involved in the plans, he was the one who told them. Frodo was being played by all his close friends.



  • If you want some timelines, summer 2025 is where I expect Russia to run out of steam. That’s when they will have gone through pretty much all USSR equipment they had and they are not producing nearly enough to keep up with the current rate of attrition. It will also be the 4th year of war, so also the 4th year of sanctions. Remember that when those sanctions were put into place, they immediately said it would take time before they started to really hurt. Well, they are hurting in a significant way already and the noose is only getting tighter. I think they might just make it to the end of 2025, but I don’t see them keeping up the war into 2026 unless China steps in and starts supplying military aid.

    There are a lot of aspects to this war, but I think the combination of running out of money, people and military hardware has to lead to some serious reconsideration of their approach.

    But the regime won’t survive not winning the war, so we’ll see. Just don’t expect that whomever replaces Putin will be less dangerous. They are more likely to be truly extreme, rather than only cynically so.