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Cake day: June 13th, 2024

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  • As I said, I think the result for the Palestinian people is going to be a worsening of the situation for Palestinians.

    So here’s the core issue: Palestinians will never earn their freedom out of Israeli goodwill. Any gains will have to be made in spite of Israel’s insistence that they’re entitled to all of Palestine. No matter what method you pick, things will have to get worse before they get better. This is independent of whether this particular method will work or not.

    That said, I do not have any ideas for how to actually accomplish a two state solution.

    Exactly. What Hamas is doing is ugly, but they (and Palestinian resistance as a whole) are doing what they can in an impossible situation. Of course this is aside from the dictatorship aspect; they should definitely stop doing that. Anyway what I’m trying to say is: There’s only one way forward for Palestinians and it’s to force Israel to keep destroying Western goodwill until it’s all gone. They’re doing a good job on that department, which is what I was referring to as “results”. Remember that 2024 is the first time Palestine becomes an election issue in the West in 20 years. What Israel lost in this genocide cannot be underestimated.



  • I think there are other possible conclusions that are less about anything good and more about destroying perceived enemies.

    I’m not talking about those actions. Hamas has participated in too many good faith negotiations, both with Israel and the PNA, for an organization that only cares about its own existence. See for example: 2013-2014 unity government, 2008 ceasefire, 2012-2013 ceasefire.

    While I support a Two State Solution, I don’t think this is good strategy for accomplishing it, and is far more likely to accelerate the destruction of the Palestinian people.

    Then what do you suggest instead?

    I don’t see hamas as freedom fighters at all. I see them as misguided jihadists with an effective propaganda wing and a savvy sense for politics.

    I mean they produce results. You can think there are better ways (I don’t see them, but maybe they exist), but you can’t argue with results.


  • I appreciate the sentiment, but somebody should’ve pointed out to them how many genocides we’ve stopped vs how many we’ve allowed to happen over the past half century.

    I’m not sure I get the point. Who’s “we” and what did they do?

    If hamas was really interested in Palestinian freedom, they would have granted elections in the region they controlled.

    Hamas definitely wants power, that’s for sure. I’m not saying they’re a good government. But Palestinian freedom from Palestinians and Palestinian freedom from Israel are two completely different things. Hamas is definitely authoritarian, but they also genuinely want freedom for Palestine. Their actions over the past 20 years can only point to that conclusion.








  • There’s also a good possibility that one of the high ranking military officers will use the opportunity that will arise from the chaos to orchestrate a coup and put themselves in power.

    That is, admittedly, a possibility I hadn’t considered.

    This treaty has been active for 50 years, what would Israel gain from destroying it?

    If the treaty remains active then makes sense, but I doubt anyone will care about a peace treaty with a failed state. You know how when a country just falls apart its neighbors go after the pieces? That’s the sort of scenario I’m envisioning here. Admittedly my thinking might be overly simplistic, and I should’ve considered more orderly possibilities, but at least in the Syria-style absolute chaos situation I’m imagining (which after thinking about it isn’t as likely as I thought) of I don’t see why they’d honor the sovereignty of a state that ceased to exist, in the same way nobody really cares about Syria as a sovereign state anymore.




  • You only say that because you don’t know how Egypt is looking like right now. Egypt’s economy is the worst it’s ever been in decades because of mismanagement, and it’s not getting better. We’re seeing the government build new bridges and cities using our tax pounds while people can’t buy food. They’re borrowing money at absurd rates to try to keep the whole thing from collapsing and paying back by selling the counter piecemeal to gulf states while refusing to actually fix anything. People keep having to find places to cut back on food and other essentials just so they don’t starve. We can’t get enough fuel for the country so blackouts have been going on for a while and it’s killing newborns in hospitals. Hell, a guy I know had a 9-hour long blackout recently.

    Egypt’s economy is in free fall right now and there’s not much more room for falling before people starve. Some kind of revolution is going to happen within the next few decades (because people don’t like to die of starvation) and you know what happens when the people try taking back control from a military dictatorship. Where exactly it’ll be on the Frenchrevolution-Syrian civil war (which started because the Syrian government refused to give up its power) spectrum I don’t know, but given what I’ve seen from other examples in the region and the behavior of Egypt’s government I am very much not optimistic.