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Cake day: June 13th, 2023

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  • It seems implausible in the short term, but if statements like these are in any way reflective of long term strategic goals, or even official rhetoric, it’s still ominous. Of course, given the fact it’s state TV, it could be the General purely reciting the party line to give the public the impression that the war is going vastly better than it really is. But it also reminds me of what were purported to be strategic planning documents leaked by FSB sources early in the war, from when Russia still believed they’d take Kyiv in three days. It described a plan to conquer the country in weeks, then present their army on the Polish border as a fait accompli and declare a no-fly zone over the Baltics as an ultimatum to NATO.

    Whether that’s true or not, subsequent events showed that the ZSRF was incapable of even that plan, as you say. But the very level of disparity between nominal and actual capabilities that led Moscow to believe such a thing was possible to begin with certainly doesn’t speak to their ability to make accurate estimations of what their forces are capable of.