The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system and a future collapse would have severe impacts on the climate in the North Atlantic region. In recent years weakening in circulation has been reported, but assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that a full collapse is unlikely within the 21st century. Tipping to an undesired state in the climate is, however, a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system. Here, data-driven estimators for the time of tipping predict a potential AMOC collapse mid-century under the current emission scenario.
Yeah after a little digging it looks like the risk isn’t that it’ll stop and do something crazy like reverse directions, but it could phase shift to a slow, weak circulation pattern over the course of a few decades. That would mean that heat still gets delivered northward but not quite as far and not quite as fast, which presumably would increase not only sea level but also hurricane intensity/duration over the eastern US/Canada. The British Isles would dry up considerably, as would the poorest parts of South America, Africa, and south Asia, so we’re likely looking at tens of millions of refugees fleeing famine each year.
Just so you are aware, The British isles is a political term popularised in an attempt legitimise the occupation of Ireland.
Thanks for the heads up. I thought about using “the UK”, but then Ireland was an outlier. Is there a less controversial term for the whole cluster?
British and Irish will do, thanks for taking the information on board.
I sometimes say northwestern European archipelago just for the laugh though.