Ticking away
The moments that make up a dull day
You fritter and waste the hours
In an offhand way
Kicking around on a piece of ground
In your hometown
Waiting for someone
Or something to show you the way
Tired of lying in the sunshine
Staying home to watch the rain
You are young and life is long
And there is time to kill today
And then one day you find
Ten years have got behind you
No one told you when to run
You missed the starting gun
I was going to run, but I had to stay for the epic solo…
Bwahhhhhhhhh
Bwaaa waa waahhhhh
Do doooooo deeeewww dooowoooo
Doo doo doo
BlununinhNUH NUUHHHHH
Sad modem noises.
This is a good place to remind everyone that if you wait for social security retirement in America you have a really good chance of dying shortly after that retirement. The great die off starts at 65.
And yes you can live healthier to have better odds of getting higher on that chart. But you cannot add young years. So if your idea of Europe includes skiing in the alps or something then you need to go before you retire. Don’t let the idle rich dictate your life. They aren’t waiting around.
That population pyramid is a bit misleading because the baby boom coincides with the ages with the steepest declines. In part, there were significantly fewer people born in 1939 compared to 1959, so you’d expect way more 65 year olds than 85 year olds in 2024.
Yes, the death rate is higher among older people, but the life expectancy of a 60 year old man is still another 20 years.
You’re not wrong but you’re not right. Life expectancy is an average. Here’s a 1980 chart that shows the same trend.
Also baby boomers are 60-78 years old. You can clearly see the die off happening within their generation.
You don’t think that 1980 chart has a very different shape? The current chart is almost flat from 20-60, while the 1980 chart is actually pyramid shaped, with the steepness is only slightly sharper past 60. And matches the steepness of the range from 25-50. Nobody talks about a 25-year-old die off.
You’re better off charting the actuarial tables to convey the data you’re trying to talk about (death rates), rather than relying on a stat that is influenced by birth rates and death rates in an opaque way.
That’s the baby boom moving up the chart. It’s 1980, they’re 15-35. You can clearly see the normal population before the baby boom and it’s fall off.
That’s the baby boom moving up the chart.
Yes, exactly my point. The boomer generation itself made the population pyramid look different at every stage of its life, which is why the 1980 chart looks so different from the 2023 chart. When you introduce a cohort that has its own slope from birth statistics, the shape of the drop off at 60 is confounded by the preexisting shape of the slope before they entered old age.
So the appropriate method of isolating the variable that shows what you call a “die off” would be to just pull up the actuarial tables that show what percentage of 60, 61, 62 year olds, etc., die that year. Not to compare how many of those there are as a percent of overall population.
Except they cover the period we’re worried about. Everyone figures anything after 80 is a gift. The oldest boomers are 78. You have 2 years on that chart that might be questionable. Seeing the die off start at 65 to 75 is all within the “new” paradigm.
You keep calling it a “die off” because you’re being visually tricked by the misleading population pyramid. Use the actuarial tables instead.
Among 65 year old men, the probability of surviving to 75 is 76%. The probability of surviving to 85 is 39%. The probability of surviving to 95 is 5.9%.
For women, the odds are 84%, 52%, and 12% of getting to 75/85/95, respectively.
Yes, these are higher death rates than at younger ages. But nowhere near what the shape of the population pyramid suggests, where the 85 age cohort is about 1/4 as large as the 65, which misleadingly suggests a probability of 25% of living 20 more years, when the real number is closer to 45%.
the life expectancy of a 60 year old man is still another 20 years.
Also, importantly, Americans (born in 1980 as a reference) have a 95% chance of living to see age 60.
Even in relatively poor and disadvantaged states (W. Virginia or Mississippi) you’re looking at 92-94% odds.
We’ve solved for a lot of the early mortality threats common to prior generations - childhood diseases most prominently. We’ve also seen a general improvement in public health with respect to smoking and drinking. And workplace safety has improved dramatically as we shifted from Ag Labor to Industrial work to Office jobs.
And yes you can live healthier to have better odds of getting higher on that chart.
Living healthier means keeping your stress low, saving time for exercise, and limiting your intake of fast food.
But these are luxuries primarily reserved for the already wealthy. Luxuries afforded through cheap service sector labor.
Like so much else in this country, good health is paid for with a labor tax on the poor.
I’ll see you on the dark side of the Moon.
Poor bastard was waiting for Windows update to finish.
We bought a travel trailer back in 2011. A neighbor asked for a tour, so I showed it to him. He was telling me that it had been him and his wife’s dream to buy an RV when they retired and tour the country. Unfortunately, medical issues meant that never happened.
He told us we were smart to do it young. You just never know. And we’ve had many great experiences in it.
And we’ve had many great experiences in it.
Oh, I bet you have … ಠ◡ಠ
THE IMPLICATION HERE IS SEX
Oooooooh.
That guy fucks.
In his recreational vehicle.
Or on a boat. You know, because of the implication.
It’s not like you can afford anything else.
God I love Pink Floyd!!
Same. Especially this song. More chills given than any other song. I’d assume I’ve listened to it 200 times or more at this point
Mine is “Dogs.” The combination of the message and the barking in the solo is just…
It’s brutal, isn’t it? 7 minutes of pure distilled existential terror
Yeah it’s breautiful™
I wonder what motivational posters workers in the Bahamas have on their wall
Maybe they just have a big sign that just says “HERE”.
Or possibly a window?
DON’T FORGET.HERE
YOU’RE
FOREVER.
A picture of some depressing city alleyway that’s says
“Laugh at the losers who are stuck with this out their window”
A lot of “third world” countries don’t work the hours we do.
Who is “we”?
The Americans grinding 60-90 hours a week.
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Skyscrapers, most likely.
I used to live in a resort city for the past year, and really missed big city things, like specialty stores - for the whole city there was only one PC store, one bicycle store, one music store - and all of them sucked big time. So I had to rely on online marketplaces… oh wait, there were none, so I had to order international and wait for months. Local taxi was also not good, food delivery business practically non-existent. Same for furniture and appliances, instead of home depot and radioshack you’d have to go to bazaars and ask around. But the most important one is opportunities. I was a digital nomad and lived comfortably, but locals, holy hell, I don’t have any idea how they survive with wages this low. Pretty sure some of those construction workers would trade it all away to live as street musicians in SF or NYC, as just surviving there would put them in like worlds top 0.1%, but instead they work for hours on dangerous jobs for what I would’ve spend on a cup of coffee in a local cafe catered to tourists.
I’m one of the rare people who’ll say that I wish I spent more time at work.
Honestly, give me a stable 9-5 office job with a living wage and I’d be happy. “The grind” doesn’t sound so bad if I can have the money for a bed and food.
Maybe it’s time to finally give it all up and buy that little sailboat ⛵
I suffer from catastrophic seasickness
there are pills for that
I keep having dreams of things I need to do
And waking up but not following through
But it feels like I haven’t slept at all
When I wake to a silence and she’s facing the wall
Posters of Dylan and of Hemingway
An antique compass for a sailor’s escape
She says, “You just can’t live this way”
And I close my eyes and I never say
I’m still having dreams
I think I’m the second frame, quickly becoming the third
I might still be first, how do I break out, waiting for instructions…
Father time is undefeated; try to have some fun!
There is always time (until there isn’t)
You work your entire life to pay for your headstone.
(Approximate translation of some french punk lyrics that capture the same sentiment)
Vacation? With what money?
The song calls for a radical change of paradigm, not a vacation. A vacation would be nice, though.
